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Industry Financial Forecast - September 2010 _IATA

posted Sep 22, 2010, 5:39 AM by Rowan Hewitt

Released 21 September 2010

Key points from our full report on the outlook
for airline financial performance in 2010-11:



  • We have revised up our forecast for 2010 net profits to $8.9bn, from our previous forecast of $2.5bn;
  • Already in the first half of 2010 we have seen Asia-Pacific and US airlines reporting a recovery of cash flows to pre-recession levels;
  • Yields in particular are stronger than expected this year and a strong second quarter has led us to revise upwards our forecast for 2010 traffic volumes;
  • We have kept our forecast for crude oil prices unchanged;
  • In this environment Asia-Pacific airlines will generate the largest profits, followed by N American airlines, but European airlines will still be in loss;
  • However, this cyclical upturn may be short-lived as downside economic risks grow in the European and US economies;
  • We forecast slower growth in air travel and freight in 2011 and rising capacity will put downward pressure on the improvement in yields and load factors;
  • As a result we expect to see industry profits slip in 2011 to $5.3bn;

- IATA Economics -